Trade Political Races in Real Time: Live Market Tracker
Author: Mike Breen
Kalshi is a federally-regulated prediction market platform offering real money trading markets on everything from politics to the weather to entertainment and sports. Trading on political markets like elections is soaring in popularity as people realize they can turn their political predictions into real money positions on fully regulated, legal prediction market platforms. That means that those of you following local election news and key races like NYC Mayor, NJ Governor, PA House districts, and even the 2028 presidential race can potentially profit from accurate political predictions.
Kalshi broke onto the mainstream scene during the 2024 presidential election when its prediction market forecasted Trump’s likely win well ahead of the polls. After a challenge to election markets from its regulator, the CFTC, Kalshi sued and eventually won its case, clearing the way for legal election trading nationwide.
NYC Mayor race odds: Live tracker
The 2025 New York City mayoral race is unlike any in recent memory, marked by upset victories, dramatic twists, and a divided field. State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, won the Democratic primary in a stunning upset over former Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Cuomo, refusing to bow out, is now running as an independent, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams—once a Democrat—also switched to an independent run after surviving corruption charges. Republican Curtis Sliwa is making another bid as well. Polls show Mamdani with a sizable early lead, thanks in part to opposition votes being split between the three other candidates.
Main Candidates
- Zohran Mamdani (Democrat): Progressive assemblyman and surprise primary winner.
- Andrew Cuomo (Independent): Former governor trying for a comeback.
- Eric Adams (Independent): Incumbent mayor, running after corruption charges were dropped.
- Curtis Sliwa (Republican): Law-and-order perennial candidate.
The general election is set for November 4, 2025, and the fractured field means plenty can still happen down the stretch.
NJ Governor race odds: Live tracker
The 2025 New Jersey governor’s race is wide open, drawing major attention from local voters and prediction market traders. With Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy term-limited, Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are the leading nominees, setting the stage for a competitive, high-stakes battle this November.
Sherrill holds a modest lead in most recent polls, but a significant share of voters—especially independents—remain undecided, keeping the race fluid. Party lines are largely set, but both campaigns need to appeal to New Jersey’s large independent bloc, since recent statewide races have tightened and national political dynamics could still swing the odds. Polling research shows that the core issues for voters are affordability, property taxes, and the state of the local economy.
Both campaigns are fighting for the broad middle: Sherrill needs solid turnout from her base and an edge with independents, while Ciattarelli must build a coalition that includes a large chunk of swing voters. With New Jersey’s recent trend toward closer statewide races and strong national headwinds for both parties, most analysts expect tightening odds as November approaches—making the market especially interesting to traders looking for volatility and late-cycle shifts.
Main Contenders
- Mikie Sherrill (Democrat): Congresswoman known for her moderate appeal.
- Jack Ciattarelli (Republican): Businessman, former state assemblyman, making his second run after a narrow loss in 2021.
The general election is November 4, 2025, an event sure to see movement in prediction markets as late-breaking shifts and turnout uncertainty persist.
Josh Shapiro 2028 presidential nominee odds: Live tracker
Prediction markets have already fired up for the 2028 presidential election, and there’s steady chatter about Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s potential candidacy. As of September 2025, Kalshi traders price Shapiro at about a 6% chance to win outright—putting him in the Democratic top tier but behind favorites like Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Shapiro’s national profile is rising, but he hasn’t confirmed 2028 ambitions. He remains focused on Pennsylvania, where his job approval is strong and he’s widely expected to cruise to reelection in 2026 thanks to party unity and a lack of major scandal. Still, analysts note his fundraising prowess, centrist reputation, and growing appeal among swing voters make him a serious “wait-and-see” contender for the Democratic nomination.
Recent polling shows Shapiro with a roughly 28% national favorability and relatively low negatives, though he doesn’t yet have the name recognition of some Democratic rivals. For traders, his odds could shift quickly if he signals intent or other Democratic leaders stumble.
Key facts on Josh Shapiro – 2028
- Job approval (PA): Solid, with strong party support and positive statewide numbers.
- Known for: Fundraising strength, swing-state executive experience, moderate image.
- Candidacy status: Has not formally entered, but seen as a potential “dark horse” if the Democratic field opens up.
For prediction market traders: Shapiro is a mid-tier “sleeper” whose odds could move sharply on any hint of national moves or headline Democratic weaknesses.
2026 Midterm markets heating up
After the 2025 election cycle, expect prediction markets on 2026 midterm races to heat up as campaign season gets underway. You can find live trackers for key PA House and Senate races right here as we follow the drama — and potential trading opportunities.