- Results show that long-serving Paul Kagame has floored his challengers, garnering 99% of the presidential vote.
- This move gives Kagame a new 7-year term, and another chance to solve the persistent Rwanda-DRC conflict.
- Rwanda-DRC conflict has evolved into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises in the world.
Rwanda Elections
Early results show that President Paul Kagame has beaten his challengers, garnering a jaw dropping 99.1 percent of the presidential votes cast on Monday, July 15, 2024. Kagame, who has been at the helm of Rwanda’s governance since 1994 secured victory by a similar margin in 2017.
His main challengers Democratic Green Party’s Frank Habineza and independent Philippe Mpayimana got 0.53 percent and 0.32 percent of the vote respectively.
According to Rwanda’s National Electoral Commission, about nine million people out of a population of 14 million were registered to vote. This represents an increase of two million voters compared to 2017 polls.
Rwanda has come a long way from the devastation it faced after the 1994 genocide against its Tutsi population when President Paul Kagame first became de facto leader. However, 30 years on, Kagame faces no “serious challenge” to his rule, with foreign and local critics accusing the president of repressing the opposition domestically.
Still, Kagame is also loved by many Rwandans, young and old alike. Many praise the longtime leader for reuniting the country after the genocide and setting it on a path of economic growth.
The East African nation is, however, on the path to steady growth. The World Bank argues that Rwanda aspires to become a Middle-Income republic by 2035 and a High-Income republic by 2050. It plans to achieve this via a series of seven-year National Strategies for Transformation (NST), spearheaded by sectoral strategies aimed at meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The economy of Rwanda has remained resilient and adaptable despite challenging external and domestic shocks, achieving a 7.6 per cent growth rate in the first three quarters of 2023. GDP is expected to gain momentum in 2024–26, with a projected growth of 7.2 per cent.
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As Kagame takes office for yet another seven year term, tense relations with Rwanda’s neighbor, the DRC, remain a deepening challenge for both countries and the broader region, say analysts. Escalating tensions between the two, intensified by a United Nations report released last week, warning that the risk could snowball into a wider regional conflict.
According to AlJazeera, in eastern DRC, M23 rebels, an armed group formed largely of Rwandans, are engaged in a deadly offensive with the DRC military, leading to a massive humanitarian and displacement crisis and subsequent mediation efforts by regional leaders.
According to the UN expert group report, 3,000 to 4,000 Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) members are fighting alongside the M23 in DRC. A previous UN report accused Kigali of supporting and aiding M23. This time, though, the experts said Rwanda is the “de facto” leader of the group. RDF operations, it added, “extended beyond mere support” but encompassed “direct and decisive involvement”. Uganda, an ally of Kigali, is also accused of aiding M23’s movements.
Valtino Omolo, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS), told Al Jazeera the UN report “[could] possibly lead to increased international actions against Rwanda, such as economic and diplomatic sanctions”.
All parties, including M23, RDF, and the Congolese forces tortured and executed civilians seen as supporting their opponents, the 293-page report detailed. Gold from the mineral-rich eastern DRC was also smuggled across into Rwanda and Uganda, it alleged.
Long conflict in eastern Congo
Long running conflict in eastern Congo has morphed into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with over 100 armed groups fighting in the region, most for land and control of mines with valuable minerals. Some are fighting to try to protect their communities. Many groups are accused of carrying out mass killings, rapes, and other human rights violations.
The prolonged civil unrest has displaced about seven million people, including thousands living in temporary camps like the one that was attacked last month. Many others are beyond the reach of humanitarian aid.
Government spokesperson Yolanda Makolo did not outrightly deny RDF’s presence in the DRC while speaking to reporters last week but pointed to Kinshasa’s support for an anti-Kagame Rwandan rebel group, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).
“The DRC has all the power to de-escalate the situation if they want to, but until then, Rwanda will continue to defend itself,” Makolo said.
Despite massive landmass differences, Rwanda which is recently marking its spot in the global economic space is working hard to ensure the security of its small country.
In an exclusive interview with France 24, Rwandan President Paul Kagame declared Rwanda’s readiness to go to war with the Democratic Republic of Congo if necessary, stating, ‘They are ready to fight and are not afraid of anything.’
This statement came a few months after Rwanda’s President agreed to meet the President of DRC Felix Tshisekedi to address the ongoing crisis in eastern Congo.
Rwanda, with Uganda, invaded the DRC in 1996 and then again in 1998, sparking the two Congo wars. Both claimed the pursuit of rebels hiding in eastern DRC. Kigali was after the Hutu militias that fled Kagame’s Tutsi forces after the genocide and amassed in refugee camps in the DRC to launch incursions. However, Kigali is also accused of using the wars as a pretext to loot DRC’s minerals.
Instability in eastern DRC led to the emergence of a hoard of armed groups battling to control the mineral-rich region. Alongside the M23, between 120 to 140 rebel groups are active in the country. A 15,000-member-strong UN peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO – deployed since 1999, did not deter the groups. This February, the peacekeepers began their withdrawal after a frustrated President Felix Tshisekedi said they had failed to protect Congolese.
According to Aljazeera, M23’s first rebellion was crushed. But in late 2021, it re-emerged, accusing Kinshasa of reneging on promises to integrate fighters into the army. It now controls several towns and last week seized Kanyabayonga, a four-hour drive from Goma. The UN said the group’s advances, aided by the RDF, have benefitted from advanced weaponry and that it has grounded all air assets of the Congolese military.
Victoire Inagbire, a high-profile Rwandan opposition politician, said the UN’s allegations against Rwanda were “frightening” and raised questions for Rwandans.
“Why and under what mandate our soldiers would be sent to fight in DRC? If this is true … it reinforces the undemocratic process in Rwanda governance that I have always denounced,” Inagbire, who is one of several intending presidential candidates barred from the Rwandan elections, told Al Jazeera.
On the other hand Rwandan officials, including Kagame, often point to Kinshasa’s support for the FDLR, the Hutu rebel group fighting alongside Congolese forces. FDLR and Nyatura, a group of Hutu militias, are accused of persecuting Congolese Tutsis.
Hope for Rwanda
However, Rwanda is becoming a beacon of hope and a disruptor of what seems to be a curse of doom for war-ravaged countries in the region. Hence, a few issues stand to be Kagame’s pain points, as addressed by the World Bank.
Matters such as inclusive growth remain a vital hindrance, as the poverty reduction efforts have weakened over the years. Regarding the international poverty line of $2.15 (2017 PPP), the poverty rate declined from 75.2 per cent to 53.5 per cent from 2000 to 2013 and became almost stagnant. In 2016, it was 52 per cent. This poverty reduction downturn is explained by compressed consumer consumption in rural areas, due in part to a slow rural-to-urban transition.
Addressing the above drawbacks will require combined efforts to improve the quality of life, infrastructure (water and electricity), essential basic social services (education, healthcare, and security), and efficient support for entrepreneurship and private-sector job creation.
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