Rooftop photo voltaic installations are rising regardless of South Africans having fun with the longest spell of uninterrupted energy provide since 2022.
The second quarter of 2024 (April to June) noticed 350.5MW of rooftop photo voltaic capability added by South African households and enterprise, in comparison with 240MW within the first quarter, in line with GoSolr, a photo voltaic set up firm.
“The final day we had load shedding was 28 March, and this can be a excellent alternative for the photo voltaic business to disassociate itself from load shedding,” stated GoSolr CEO Andrew Middleton on the launch in Johannesburg on Tuesday of the corporate’s quarterly Gentle Paper on photo voltaic power.
“Final 12 months was an distinctive 12 months; if issues proceed like this, South Africa will add round half the capability it did final 12 months by the top of 2024.”
Final 12 months was South Africa’s worst 12 months of load shedding for the reason that rolling blackouts started in 2008, with Eskom reporting that 335 of the one year within the 12 months had been impacted. Rooftop photo voltaic boomed as a consequence, as households and companies scrambled to seek out various power sources to satisfy their wants.
Demand in 2024 is just not as robust because it was final 12 months however is rising, and one of many fundamental drivers for this development is the rising value of grid-supplied electrical energy, stated Middleton. Eskom elevated its direct tariff by 12.74% in April and municipalities have handed these prices on to shoppers at charges of between 11% and 14%, efficient from 1 July. Some municipalities have launched controversial fixed-use tariffs, too, which, in line with GoSolr, find yourself punishing those that use much less electrical energy and benefiting those that use extra. “It disincentivises individuals utilizing electrical energy sparingly,” stated Middleton.
Grid costs
Evaluation by GoSolr exhibits that Eskom’s value per kilowatt-hour – how a lot it prices the utility to generate electrical energy – goes to extend within the coming years because of a mix of the inefficiency of its ageing coal fleet and its shedding clients as photo voltaic additional penetrates the market.
“When demand for Eskom energy goes down, it’s not having the results of bringing costs down. As a substitute, it’s bringing costs up as a result of Eskom has fewer clients and should enhance costs to cowl its prices. Eskom is just not within the place to chop its prices to draw clients due to its ballooning prices,” stated Middleton.
Learn: The massive promise of floating photo voltaic vegetation
The liberty to generate energy away from an more and more costly grid is just not the one driver of photo voltaic adoption. Grid constraints – and the ensuing energy outages because of “load discount” – are additionally driving the will for households and enterprise to scale back their reliance on Eskom.
“South Africa wants big funding in its transmission infrastructure, not simply in high-capacity long-haul infrastructure however within the final mile, to the house, as properly,” stated Middleton.
In response to GoSolr, as South Africa makes progress in stabilising the power provide, the motivation driving rooftop photo voltaic demand will as soon as once more shift away from the fee and financial savings views at the moment driving adoption and in direction of clients insisting that extra of their power comes from clear, renewable sources. For the market to achieve this level, nevertheless, photo voltaic installations should turn into accessible to lower-income households, too.
“Other than getting the best-possible tariff construction, there must be good market indicators. This implies scrapping the ten% import tax on photo voltaic panels and implementing incentives that encourage households to discharge batteries when the system wants them probably the most, reminiscent of throughout peak hours and at sure instances of the 12 months,” stated the GoSolr Gentle Paper. – © 2024 NewsCentral Media
