- Egyptian Professor of Geology claims its solely a matter of time earlier than Ethiopia’s GERD dam collapses when stuffed to capability.
- GERD was designed to carry 11 billion cubic meters, however its capability was elevated to 60 billion cubic meters – which raises many issues, particularly since Ethiopia is a rustic liable to earthquakes, the scholar states
- African’s reward GERD achievements on social media #ItsMyDam, #GERDisYourDam
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is prone to collapse, an Egyptian media outlet reported just lately. The ‘Egypt Impartial’ quoted a Cairo College Professor of Geology and Water Sources Abbas Sharaky allegedly saying that “GERD was designed to carry 11 billion cubic meters, however its capability was elevated to 60 billion cubic meters – which raises many issues, particularly since Ethiopia is a rustic liable to earthquakes.”
Within the article titled ‘Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is at its utmost restrict and dangers collapse,’ the professor added that; “Ethiopia accommodates the most important variety of volcanoes behind the passage of the largest rift on the planet in Addis Ababa.” In response to him, despite the fact that the mentioned rift is 500 kilometers away, “it would probably influence the dam particularly if the earthquakes are significantly robust.”
With that warning, he harassed that Egypt has “categorically rejected Ethiopia’s unilateral insurance policies that violate the principles and rules of worldwide regulation, which represent a transparent violation of the Declaration of Ideas Settlement and the Safety Council’s presidential assertion of September 15, 2021.”
He accused Ethiopia of “utilizing the negotiations as a canopy to extend reaching any answer,” however maintained that Egypt had what he described as “sincerest intentions.” The professor was referring to the over a decade-long failed talks between the 2 sides (and different nations utilizing the Nile waters). After hitting a stale finish, each nations turned to the UN, every accusing the opposite of intransigence.
Of their newest attraction, accusations and rebuttals on the UN (Sept 2024), Ethiopia referred to as on UN officers to “…be aware of Egypt’s repeated risk to make use of power towards Ethiopia.” Ethiopia requested the UN to warning Egypt towards, “its aggressive method.”
This was in response to Egypt’s preliminary letter to the UN Safety Council through which it accused Ethiopia of “violating worldwide regulation by persevering with to fill the dam with out settlement from downstream nations.” Nevertheless, Ethiopia lashed again and described Egypt’s issues as, “a litany of unfounded allegations.”
Ethiopia says it’s issues of ‘threats of aggression’ by Egypt are evident within the latter’s most up-to-date army ties with Somalia, which has its personal bone to select with authorities in Addis Ababa.
Taking no probabilities, Ethiopia is reported to have elevated safety in and across the dam. BBC quotes its Kenya-based Horn of Africa safety analyst Rashid Abdi reporting that “Ethiopia is stepping up safety across the dam.”
The safety analysts says Ethiopia’s “defensive measures embrace declaring the Benishangul-Gumuz area, the place the dam is positioned, a restricted airspace, and there are additionally stories that Ethiopia is placing up anti-aircraft batteries across the dam. It most likely fears reconnaissance flights by Egypt.”
Additionally Learn: Energy large Wärtsilä shares roadmap for East Africa’s vitality future
GERD: Is the specter of collapse actual?
The Egyptian scholar maintains that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was meant to carry 11 billion cubic meters, however is now taking pictures for 60 billion cubic meters; “which raises many issues of collapse,” he warns.
He backs up his warning with a declare that Ethiopia accommodates a lot of volcanoes, and seats on prime of the largest rift on the planet. In response to him, these elements coupled with potential earthquakes all level to a devastating potential collapse of the dam; however is the professor appropriate?
A number of different Egyptian consultants have asserted related claims, in 2023, the paper ‘Flood propagation modeling: Case research the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam failure’ was printed by the Alexandria Engineering Journal.
The paper asserts: ‘Dams’ failure evaluation performs a vital position within the growth of dam security planning and emergency motion.’
That mentioned, it claims; ‘ Because the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been constructed, there have been many issues about its security and its results on downstream nations in case of its failure.’
The paper goes forward and fashions the GERD breaking utilizing what the consultants name the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Middle’s River Evaluation System (HEC-RAS).
“Two dimensions mannequin underneath completely different failure situations was urged. Furthermore, outflow hydrographs and flood inundation maps have been introduced as a consequence of dam breach. Lastly, it was concluded that, in case of catastrophic failure, move depths might range from 3 to 10 m in some residential areas, reminiscent of Khartoum. Moreover, the water floor elevation might attain 184 m above msl (imply sea stage) in Lake Nasser in case of dam failure with a completely saved GERD reservoir,” warns the paper.
It goes on to warn that within the occasion of a collapse; “…the utmost move would attain 325,928 m3/sec which is greater than 21.5 occasions the full capability of the dam spillway.”
“From time immemorial, Egypt has feared the prospect of Ethiopia holding again the Nile waters and has perceived this chance as an existential threat,” explains Dale Whittington in his 2024 paper titled ‘Ought to Egypt be afraid of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? The implications of adversarial water coverage on the Blue Nile.’
“Nevertheless, there aren’t any analyses within the printed literature that quantify how a lot hurt Ethiopia might inflict on Egypt,” the author admits.
GERD energy manufacturing trials
Steve Floyd stories on ongoing energy technology trials on the GERD which began in 2022.
“The trials will produce 700 megawatts (MW) of electrical energy, however the dam will generate 5,150 MW as soon as stuffed to capability. Such sustainable energy will show a boon for Ethiopia’s economic system, carry U.N. Sustainable Growth Targets inside attain and profit the broader area,” he writes.
He additionally notes how well-liked the dam is amongst Africans; “With funding from civil servant donations, diaspora assist and the sale of bonds to personal residents, the GERD has change into a logo of nationwide delight.”
The author factors out trending social media tags of the dam reminiscent of hashtags like #ItsMyDam, #GERDisYourDam and #EthiopiaPrevails and the truth that “…folks throughout Africa praised the milestone (energy technology trials) on social media.”
“The World Financial institution estimates that half of its inhabitants lacks common entry to electrical energy. Such considerable energy would assist Ethiopia obtain the U.N. Sustainable Growth Objective for reasonably priced, accessible vitality, and the dam might present surplus electrical energy to the broader area,” he writes.
