Disney has a lot riding on a little alien child. The Mandalorian and Grogu officially hit theaters yesterday, and the entertainment giant desperately needs Baby Yoda to revive the famous franchise’s fading box-office appeal.
But the Force may not be strong with this one. The film is at risk of having the worst opening for any Star Wars movie ever:
- The Mandalorian and Grogu is projected to make $80 million to $100 million domestically this weekend. That would be less than Solo: A Star Wars Story, which is the franchise’s only film to lose money (so far).
- In revenue from preview viewings, The Mandalorian and Grogu is already behind Solo, which also premiered over Memorial Day weekend (in 2018).
Potential obstacles: The film is a continuation of a Disney+ series that first endeared viewers to Baby Yoda in 2019. Potential audiences might assume the show is a prerequisite for understanding the movie. And some series fans may not be interested in the flick, either—reviews for the show had soured by its third and final season, which aired in 2023.
So, why send Grogu to the big screen? Possibly because his adventures with Pedro Pascal’s Mando are the most family-friendly Star Wars content around, and Memorial Day weekend is prime time for casual movie theater walk-ins. Plus, if the film disappoints at the box office, some analysts say it could still spur a Grogu merch resurgence.
High stakes, these are
Disney could use a win with Star Wars fans who were concerned with the company’s 2012 acquisition of Lucasfilm, the franchise’s production company.
The first rebooted Star Wars film, The Force Awakens, smashed the box office in 2015 and became the highest-grossing film domestically in US history, but momentum has since slowed. The 2019 film The Rise of Skywalker—the most recent Star Wars movie—earned mixed reviews and half as much money as The Force Awakens.
Meanwhile…Disney’s superhero movies are also struggling at the box office. Warner Bros.-owned DC’s Superman outgrossed every Marvel release last year, breaking a 17-year winning streak for the MCU.—ML
